NEWS FLASH: The International Energy Agency has raised its forecasts for oil demand in 2020 to 92.1 million barrels per day, which is a 400,000 bdp increase from its outlook last month.

The IEA said “this is mainly because the decline in 2Q20 was less severe than expected.”

However, the 2020 outlook is still down by 7.9 million barrels per day versus 2019.

The agency warned that the Covid-19 pandemic still posed a downside risk to the outlook.

While the oil market has undoubtedly made progress since “Black April”, the large, and in some countries, accelerating number of Covid-19 cases is a disturbing reminder that the pandemic is not under control and the risk to our market outlook is almost certainly to the downside.

While England’s gym owners, tattoo artists and beauticians are scrambling to get ready to open their doors, it’s worth keeping their expectations low as consumers seem hesitant to return to old habits during the pandemic.

The BRC numbers serve as a warning on this front, as do figures around the pub and goers following their reopening on “Super Saturday” last weekend.

Pub and restaurant chains traded at half their pre-pandemic levels after reopening across England last weekend, as consumers proved to be wary of visiting their local or eating out, Rob Davies reports.

Among those pubs that did open, sales on 4 July and 5 July were 45% below pre-Covid levels, the analysis found.

According to the Coffer Peach Business Tracker, which collates sales figures from 32 pub chains, about four out of 10 chain pubs began serving drinks again last weekend after being closed for nearly four months.

Restaurants were far less likely than pubs to resume normal service. Just 12% of chain venues opened their doors over the reopening weekend, reporting sales 41% below normal.

Karl Chessell, director of CGA, the consultancy that produces the data with the Coffer Group and the audit group RSM, said:

When bars and restaurants began reopening in the US during May, it was only after a couple of weeks that sales reached 54% of pre-Covid levels.

It is going to take time for the trade to return but this provides a foundation on which to build consumer confidence and adapt and improve operations.

The latest figures released by the British Retail Consortium show that shoppers were still cautious about returning to the high street even after non-essential stores were allowed to reopen in England on 15 June.

Shopper numbers were still 53% lower in the second half of June compared to a year earlier.

That compares to a 77% drop in footfall over the first two weeks when only essential shops were open in England.

Overall, footfall was down 62.6% in June, year-on-year. That is a 19 percentage point improvement from May.

Helen Dickinson, chief executive of the BRC, said:

With lockdown measures easing, consumers are slowly re-emerging onto their high streets, shopping centres and retail parks. Footfall levels are still well below pre-coronavirus levels; however, the decline was softer than it was in May thanks to the reopening of non-essential stores on 15 June.

However, she said that the government should be prepared to “step in” and consider further measures to boost demand for retailers like a wider VAT cut:

The chancellor’s economic update earlier this week provided critical interventions to protect jobs and incomes for households across the UK. We hope that some of the generous measures taken to support the hospitality industry will benefit footfall for retailers who are in close proximity to restaurants, bars and cafés.

However, unless footfall returns to UK streets, Government must be prepared to step in and take further action to boost demand, such as widening the VAT cut to include retail goods.

So here’s a rundown of what is reopening in England and and when:

Saturday 11 July: Outdoor pools. Outdoor theatre and music with limited audiences.

Recreational team sports like cricket can also start to return if they can show adequate Covid-secure plans, which the England and Wales Cricket Board has already submitted to government.

Monday 13 July: Beauticians, tattooists, spas, and tanning salons, and other “close contact services” like nail bars.

However, some face-to-face services like face waxing, eyelash treatments, make-up application and facial treatments are not yet allowed.

Saturday 25 July: Indoor gyms, swimming pools and sports facilities.

However, there is new guidance on spacing out and cleaning equipment, plus limiting the number of people in facilities and smaller class sizes.

It’s red across the board as stock markets open for trading in Europe:

• FTSE 100 is down 0.6%
• FTSE 250 is down 0.5%
• France’s CAC 40 is down 0.6%
• Spain’s IBEX is down 0.5%
• Germany’s Dax is down 0.4%

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

Gyms, nail bars, and pools will be among leisure businesses allowed to reopen in England this month after the UK government unveiled the latest easing measures following the coronavirus lockdown on Thursday.

The move will also benefit tanning salons, beauticians, spas and tattooists and other “close contact services,” which have been shut since March.

They are among the last service businesses to reopen, and come after much confusion (and criticism) over which kind of services were safe enough to welcome the public.

But the news came after another jobs bloodbath across the UK, with Boots announcing 4,000 job cuts and John Lewis revealing plans to shutter eight stores putting 1,300 jobs at risk.

The news was also overshadowed by rising US-China tensions and a record rise in coronavirus cases stateside.

Overnight, Washington imposed sanctions on three senior officials of the Chinese Communist party for alleged human rights abuses targeting ethnic and religious minorities, including the local Uighur population.

Meanwhile, markets are understandably worried about the pandemic’s spread across the US, where more than more than 60,500 new Covid-19 infections were recorded across the US yesterday. That is the highest daily tally across any country since the outbreak began.

It has raised fears that the country could be forced back into lockdowns that would hamper the US economic recovery.

The agenda

• 9.00am BST: Italian Industrial production for May
• 1.:30pm BST: US Producer Price Index for June
• The EU’s Economic and Financial Affairs Council (Ecofin) is also meeting today